In learning from data (experience), we build a model based on the sample we get. Now going by Bayesian Thinking, we continuously update our beliefs as we continue to get more and more evidence. Beliefs are flexible. They should be flexible. They need to change when we observe something that contradicts our existing belief (which later becomes a prior). This is also called “Scepticism”.
Superstitions are overwhelming Priors!
Now superstition is either personal or general.
Some events happened that lead (them) to form these priors. It’s inferencing without a proper reasoning. Later, we shall see that our mind is not designed to reason properly.
Hypothesis needs to be tested. Obviously objectively. But superstitions are very subjective. Those are accepted by some small group or by an individual.
After seeing some cat crossing road, something bad happens to me.
If I don’t walk 10 times round a Pipal tree, I experience something bad that day.
If I celebrate my birthday, I fall sick the next week.
Now it may not happen to anyone else. How can then that hypothesis (superstition) be tested? You only have 50 birthdays, for example, to draw a meaningful inference! And secondly, you cannot take that risk to continue experimenting by celebrating every birthday, because of a fear to fall sick!
Superstitions are just another type of something larger, a cognitive bias. In above birthday case, we clearly remember something negative (falling sick) more than something positive (enjoyed birthday party). This is Negativity Bias. We tend to overweigh recent experiences and literally forget our past experiences (Availability bias). This doesn’t allow us to do proper inferencing. We tend to associate our experiences with things or persons (association bias). If someone says I got my cancer cured by eating leaves of tulsi plant, you tend to believe it, rather quickly. Not because you agreed with its logic. It is because you wanted to hear that cancer got cured. There are some things that you just want to believe! If someone propagates a belief that 27th January, for example, is the auspicious day, you tend to confirm this belief by linking any positive feelings that you experience on that day with that day (confirmation bias). These biases help in strengthening the (already deviated) beliefs further. You can visit cognitive bias to explore the types and to know how many ways you can fool yourself!
Professor Dr. Jeff Rudski describes one example, Friday the thirteenth, very nicely, here.
He says our mind doesn’t like to overstrain itself. At the same time, it is curious (obviously not enough) to find the reasoning (logic) behind the development of events. The result? It comfortably settles itself for less, in believing something that is far from truth (meaning), or that has a very high bias (distance from mean).
There is a series of modifications, as the time passes, to our subjective rational thinking, that ultimately renders our rational thinking, purely irrational. A divergent series, as it diverges from the truth!
Superstitions have their plusses however. Good superstitions help unite people. They help in building the norms in the society. As they have large acceptance, they prove to be deterrents of abnormal behaviour. As we tell our child in the night, “sleep now, else the demon will take you with him”! 🙂
Reinvent The Self! 